Trend analysis with volume: reading the slope on a real chart

Lesson 4 drew market structure on slides. This lesson draws it on a live NinjaTrader daily chart, and then adds the part a slide cannot show: whether the volume behind each leg agrees with the structure you have drawn.

One rule carries the whole lesson — a movement needs a rising volume slope and a correction a falling one — and most of the time is spent on what to do when the two swap places.

Lesson 5 of the course. Lessons 1 to 4 come first.

Trend analysis with volume: reading the slope on a real chart

Lesson 4's structure drawn on a live NinjaTrader daily chart, then tested with volume: why a movement needs a rising slope, a correction a falling one, and what it means when the two swap.

Full transcript

Hello to all dear students. In this session, we will go over some points that we saw together in the slides during previous lessons. We will review this here together on the chart. In front of you is a daily chart and I wanted to share a few points about this chart with you. The topics we review will also be on the daily chart for previous lessons or in other words our primary trend. Look, when you open a chart, you select it from here. For example, for 6E, the option it might give you is day, which loads 1 day and up to 365 days. There is an option here called tick replay. When you select this tick replay option, your daily open and close points will be different. Now what is this tick replay? Tick replay is a feature and option that NinjaTrader has provided in the NinjaTrader platform. When you activate tick replay or check its box, the platform goes through the market tick by tick and then draws the chart for you. Therefore, its accuracy increases significantly. If we want to activate tick replay on a daily chart, it's generally better for users whose systems are more powerful to use tick replay since this feature can be quite demanding on computer resources. Using tick replay requires more processing power. So, it is especially suitable for those with high performance systems as less capable computers may struggle to handle the additional workload. You can use it, but it's not really essential. I'll explain it to you in more detail later. The tick replay option examines the market tick by tick and then draws the chart for you. But before you activate the tick replay option, you must first specify the time range you want tick replay to show you. Make sure to carefully do this in the historical data section on your chart or if your NinjaTrader version is different. It will be something very similar to this as shown here. You simply come and individually select each one step by step. Tick, ask, and bid. You select 60 and start from the time range you want. Make sure that tick replay, ask bid and all these options are active. Then download it because when the platform wants to apply this, it also uses the data that is stored on your system. So if you enabled tick replay and there are some gaps in certain places or when you load it, you might suddenly see some very long shadows appearing here sometimes quite unexpectedly. The reason for this is that there may be times when you haven't turned on your system and tick replay data hasn't been saved on your system. If you turn on your computer every day and are in the live market, usually the tick data is automatically saved and remains on your chart. But if you don't do this or if you don't open the platform for a month, 20 days, 10 days, or even a week, be sure to go to the historical data section beforehand and download the data. Your version of NinjaTrader might be a little different, but that's not a problem. Just look around there and you'll easily be able to download it in the same way. Now, if the tick replay option itself isn't available on your chart, meaning you've selected it, but the tick replay option doesn't appear here. To enable this feature, start by opening the application and locating the menu bar at the top of the screen. Click on tools to open a list of available options. From this list, select options to access the settings menu. Within the options window, look for the section labeled market data, which contains various settings related to market information. In this section, you will see a checkbox labeled show tick replay. Check this box to enable the tick replay feature. Once you have done this, the tick replay option will become visible and accessible for you in this section, allowing you to use it whenever you need. Now, instead of applying tick replay, our chart becomes very heavy. When we use tick replay mode, it's usually because we want to analyze long-term data. Tick data is generally needed at lower levels. That is, when we go deeper into the market, we'll need it more. There's no need to open our daily chart or hourly chart with tick replay in a way that makes our system even heavier. There's no need to set your daily chart to D. Instead, you can set it to minute. You set it like this. You open for example 1,440, and however many days you want. Say 2500 days in this way. Click okay. This 1,440-minute setting loads almost 99% like tick replay for you. We can overlook the one or 2% difference. So the chart I have here now this is a one day chart. I come and change this. I set it to minute. I set the number to 1,440 and put it on 2500 days. When I actually apply it to the chart, you might notice that some white lines appear here. These white lines will show up in the trading or break line section, which is the area where the different sessions are visually separated. You set this to transparent mode. You simply apply it and your chart will look clean and organized like this. I've also placed the volume at the bottom of the chart. First let's come and analyze a trend together. If at any point you've drawn too many lines like this on your system, just right click on drawing tools and select remove all drawing objects. This will delete all the lines. All right, let me come and I want us to analyze that initial move together. For example, I'll start from here to analyze a trend. Let me zoom this out a bit. Let's look at the movement together. All right.

Look for instance I start from this point. I consider it capturing the chart. This is my highest point here. This becomes one. It comes down lower. This lower part between this shadow and this creates a zone for me. Now we'll go through these one by one. So here becomes my lowest point. This move upward. I take this area here. Two, I take this area. Three. Look, as long as it hasn't broken through here, all of these are still uncertain. When it breaks through like this and closes below here, I say I have a downtrend. 1 2 3. The correction can even come up close to 100%. So again, here becomes my point two. And here becomes my point three. when it breaks through here like this candle that caused it to break through. Look, no matter how many times the market moves up and down between this area and that area, if it happens like this here, I'm still in a sideways market. In other words, the overall state of the market for me is sideways. For me to understand whether the trend has gone higher or is about to go lower or if these become definite, these become definite. The only factor that causes this part to break is the breakout here. All right. So now I know how to draw my trend like this. Now let me make the chart a little bigger. Look in this section where I drew from the top. These are my important zones. This becomes the lower area. One of them is here where it almost broke through and went up. This is the area. Look, it shouldn't close there. It just made a shadow. Here too is my zone which has just been broken here. It came down again. This is a zone for me. And here is another zone. Look, if I draw this out from the very top just like this, then this right here will actually be my trend. Like this.

See, every time it passes through here, I can label these P2 P3 2 3 2 3. So this is the structure of a downtrend. When you set it up like this, the open and close points are almost exact. And you can do this. Now, I'm saying that there's no need to use tick replay. When we switch to the hourly time frame and actually look at the secondary trend, we examine the zones that look like this using the hourly open and close, which are completely accurate. So you don't need to use tick replay here for that level of precision. that amount is enough. Even later on, you can open it in the same way on the daily chart. Just open it in the normal daily mode. Look at it and check the open and close points that become important for us in our secondary trend. See if they're significant for us. So, this is the schematic of a movement and the numbering of a trend. Now, I want to look at the different reversal points of this trend. We've already seen them together here. other places like right here for example where we might actually want to carefully draw out its trend just a bit more. Look from here it has come down from the top more or less like this. See well my last points were here.

This is how my trend has formed. If I want to look at it from here it has made a correction and picked a point. Meaning I want to see the reversal. First a break happened. Then it came here and moved from above this point. It has become an uptrend for me and a reversal has occurred. And now I want to draw this. It will look like this. Look here. It couldn't break and go below. This is a definite correction. So my last point is here. See this movement is happening within that range. If I want to draw this precisely.

Look, there hasn't been a close up there. One of my last points was also here in such a way that both of them remained in that area. Now, in this market, what has happened to it seems on the surface like a very big move. When drawing a trend, you might zoom in like this and get into these details. That's a mistake. You need to consider those last points. As a result, I'm within this range. A move has happened. Meaning, if I want to number them here, it will start as 1 2 1 from here, which as I mentioned, I've already explained 1 2 3 2 3 2 and the lowest point that it reached is three. So, this one and this one don't get numbered for me. Why? because they're within these. And now that it's closed higher here, this becomes two. So a sideways move has happened within this range. For me to be able to number it, this one needs to close higher than this one. Or when it comes like this. Don't get involved in these kinds of moves. Draw it like this. Like this. This isn't a daily trend. The last point you have will look like this.

That is you have one zone here and your next zone is now here. Now when it breaks here, this move is set all the way down to here. Sometimes these patterns might seem a bit difficult for you at first, but you have to keep in mind that in different market volatilities, the size and depth of the trend will vary. In some places, it's very sharp. You see, the market moves very quickly, so the trend is much easier to spot. But in some specific areas, we might actually have very slow, gradual movement, just like what we see right here in the year 2018. You can see the movements become very slow and subtle. That is, compare the amount of movement that happened in this candle with these other candles. You can see how much faster and deeper the movements are here. All right. So, up to this point, this is the schematic of the trend that we've had. Now, we want to add the volume slope and see whether the movement that's happening is correct, incorrect, or what it's like. We want to do this here using a tool and by introducing it. All right. Look, before COVID we had a downtrend in 6E. Look at what happened here. Let me give a brief explanation about this. In times when a crisis occurs like a disease, major pandemics or financial crashes, something like this can happen. For example, here the last range I had was this area. I experienced a trend like this here. Look, I didn't draw these because my last dip was here. This is also my dip. See what happened here? Right when COVID hit, there was an upward move that took out the stops above and then a downward move that cleared out the stops below as well. When this happens, you might see situations like this. These situations occur when the market becomes uncertain about its direction because of the pandemic that happens well from country to country. The policies that are going to be implemented and the events that are going to happen in those different countries, some of them might be due to financial reasons, some because of the disease and some because of war. All of this at first there might be a period of uncertainty as we wait to see which direction things will go. Which way will interest rates go, or will they want to make money more expensive or make it cheaper for example. Depending on those circumstances something like this might happen. When something like this happens you can set aside what came before it. That is you see that stops have been taken on both sides. It's as if the market has been cleared out. Now let's look at the move that's about to happen. And that means you can easily start from there onward. Draw the trend. For example, you can say okay my trend started from here. I have one movement, one correction, another movement like this, another correction, another movement, another correction. See, I didn't come here to get caught up in the middle of these. You need to look at these with a broader perspective. Again, a correction. See here, it needs to break through. This one down here hadn't broken through either. So, 1 2 3 2 3. In the same way, I can see this this bigger trend right here. So, this is another point you can use here. Now, I'm moving on to more recent dates. Let me also mention something about the data. If you want to use volume related tools on NinjaTrader, these tools work based on the chart's background that is you're looking at a regular chart but in the background within the underlying coding system and so on. It actually works in such a way that we are able to get access to the volume data and the tool that's working here goes into the background, reads the volume, reads the ticks, reads everything and then comes here to display it for you and show the numbers. But one important thing to note is that usually most platforms simply don't provide volume and tick data for more than four contracts. So, if you ever open a chart, say for 3,000 days, and use a volume tool and notice that the delta data, which we'll talk about later, or some numbers aren't being displayed for you, it shows zero. If you want to be precise or if your historical data is incomplete, if it's within the range of four contracts, that means at least one year. If you're drawing within that range and it's not displaying the numbers, you need to go and download your data through historical data. As I explained here, download about a year or a year and a half of data. Whatever amount the broker has set as the default, you won't be given more than that. In other words, you can't pull 5 years of market data from the data provider like this. At most you'll get about a year or a year and two months of historical data in this way. All right, that's all for this point. Now the tool I want to introduce here is ICF Trend Path. We're going to work with this tool. I'm going to start from a certain point in the market from a point where I can see there is data available for me like this.

Look, I'm drawing the trend like this. Later on, I'll make some adjustments to its settings as needed. With just a simple right click on the item, I can very easily and quickly draw it, making the process smooth and efficient.

All right, I'll extend it from here to here. Okay, let me mention a few points about this tool itself. You might make some adjustments to this tool or maybe your chart background is black. By default, it's designed for a black background. But if you ever want to use it on a white background, some of the numbers won't be visible. You click on it once then right-click properties here. For example, you can change the color for the return percentage or that retracement percentage. For example, if you want to set it to blue like this or if you want to change the color of any of these, you can do it here. Each one has been provided for you here one by one. The background settings and everything else are all available here. You can save this as a template for future use. However, you should never set this as the default option. For example, if you want to work in a white environment, you might name this template something like dark inverse or something similar to that. Just as an example, do not click save as default under any circumstances. If you click save as default because this is in the drawing tool section, the software can't really apply the changes as default. So it will give you an error. You just save this. Just don't save it as default in the usual way. Click okay and the colors will change. If you did save as default and got an error, go to the section in your software document. Let me bring this up. You go into the document. You go to NinjaTrader 8. You go into the template. You go to charts then to the drawing tools section. You go to the drawing tools section. Here you have the ICF Trend Path. You select it. Now look here I wrote dark. If you have saved it as default, you come here and delete the default. You delete it. Close NinjaTrader once and reopen it and that error will be gone. So remember, do not perform the save default action on the tools that are in drawing tools. All right. Now I'm going to take a look. Look here. My delta is shown as zero. It shows my delta as zero because there was no data and it couldn't calculate it.

Okay, I'm looking here. I have a correction here. Here my delta is still zero. From this point on, it seems my data is almost correct. Take a look. This symbol represents the slope. Sigma V is the sum of the volume, meaning the total of this volume, this movement. I will explain delta later. RP actually records for you the amount of movement of this compared to the previous wave. Here for the first movement we don't have an RP because it's the start of the move. For the second one it says this move has gone up by 39%. So I have this movement. This one has risen 48% compared to the previous move. See in this way you can view the amount of correction here as a percentage.

All right. Now, why am I using this tool? This particular tool. Look, here I've applied it. It might be incorrect because my tick data is weak and it doesn't show my delta. Look, I want to examine the volume of a move like this within this range.

With the F7 key, I place a vertical line here and another vertical line here. Visually, I can't just look at the lower volume and tell whether the overall slope of this movement is positive or negative. In some places, it's increased. In some places, it's decreased. In some places, it's increased again. And at another point, it's decreased a lot. So, just by looking at this, I can't accurately determine it. At some points, at some points is very clear. For example, this movement that happens here up to this point, this is the correction. Well, this slope is very obvious to the eye. But in some places, it's not like that. This tool though sets aside all the whys and hows. There are no ifs or buts and it calculates it for you easily. So whenever I see that I have a movement and I still can't see the other side of the market, it has passed this point and formed a downtrend. If I want to take this as a movement, my movement needs to have a positive slope. It doesn't matter which direction it's in. Even if it's an uptrend, even if it's an uptrend, my slope needs to be positive. This is one condition for this. If this slope becomes weak, we want to use this feature to identify the weakness of the trend. When the movement becomes weak, let's come and identify these points through this slope. Let's find these ends, these movements through this slope. So I have a positive slope on the movement. Now this movement of mine is downward. That means I'm in a downtrend. my correction needs to have a negative slope like this, minus 6,700. So this is a fundamental rule. This movement must be positive. The correction must be negative. It's the same in an uptrend that is if the trend is up its slope should be positive and when it corrects the value of the slope should be negative. This shows me that the market is moving in a healthy way. There is conviction behind this movement. There is data. That's the smart money backing this move. That intelligent capital, that big trader, that hedge fund has come in behind this movement. That's why the slope has turned positive. Now let's analyze a few points in this way. Look here again. I have a positive slope. My correction is negative. For now, we're not dealing with delta. That's a different topic. My slope here is positive. The momentum movement has a positive slope. For example, in intervals like this, if I want to look at it properly, look here especially finding the volume slope is really hard. It becomes a difficult task. Visually, it can completely mislead you. But this tool tells you exactly that the slope is positive. And the good thing about this tool is that it numbers things for you and you become aware of your trend. Okay, I'll just keep scrolling down like this. Look, if there's a spot where the slope shifts a bit, let me take a look. Let me see if there's a place where the slope has changed.

Yes. When the slope shifts like this, if it goes against your movement, it puts a background behind it. This tool gives you an alert that the slope, this movement that has happened should have been negative, but it's positive. So, it puts a background behind it whenever it goes against the movement. Here, it automatically detects that this correction should have a negative slope. When it's positive, it puts a background behind it. These alerts also exist in the other ones. We'll get into that in the delta discussion a bit later. So stay tuned for more details on that topic. Now this is another advantage of this software. It helps you by giving an alert in cases where the slope is incorrect which can be extremely useful for avoiding mistakes. Well look I've now reached this last part of the process and I want to make sure you understand how important this feature can be in your workflow. in this part.

Look in this section. If I want to draw the line correctly, here would be my last section. Look here, I have the last one. I have the last low. And here the topmost low. I can draw it the same way as well. I can also move these around very easily. I caught a movement here. Its slope was positive. For example, in my slide, I might have considered this as a negative slope. This is when visually it might mislead you. But look here, it's very easy. Or some of these points that I might have drawn for you in the slide, visually it can be misleading. But with this tool, you can see it tells me precisely. Okay, I had a movement like this. The movement, the volume is correct. It's positive. Then I look at another movement correction, which here is the highest point. I want to see what the volume looks like here. Actually, its correction is also correct. Its slope is negative. Now let's assume that according to our strategy I started to open a trade from here. I want you to see how important this slope is. Let's assume I had a strategy here and based on that strategy I entered from this point. I made the entry based on this candle right here. What happens for me personally is that I can really see when this movement actually starts to happen.

The slope has become negative.

The slope over there has become negative in my movement. The market opened from this point. It has activated my order. It moved and came down to this low point. But the slope is gradually turning negative and it has become significantly negative. So when I have this data, if my stop is here, I can move my stop to my entry point or I can take a partial exit because this is a risk for me. The direction of my movement needs to turn positive and when it comes back up, I see that during the correction, it's gaining volume.

So it's gaining volume during the correction. Again, when it moves in the direction of my movement, I say, "Okay, it probably did some fishing here." If I enter again here, I see that once more there's no volume coming in with my movement. The slope of my volume turns negative. Right here, I realize exactly that a reversal is happening. So now after I see that this reversal is happening, I can easily go ahead and do this. I select this and press the backspace key on it. that is look I select this by pressing the backspace key I remove these extra lines here making the text cleaner and easier to read well as you can see my last point that needs to be broken has a green line on it which helps to highlight it so if I want to draw this trend from here on I'll draw it like this just as I've demonstrated I come and select the ICF Trend Path once again look what I was talking about is this error. If you encounter this error and decide to save your work while this issue is present, you will see that this error message appears. As a result, you will face this error and this error will cause your tools such as any drawing tools or indicators you have added to be removed from your chart. This means that any customizations or adjustments you have made to your chart will be lost and you will need to add those tools again. for this as well. I said you should go to the document, go into NinjaTrader 8, go into the template in drawing tools. The tool we selected was ICF Trend Path. We delete this default from here. Now we select it again. See, it starts drawing again. So if you encounter that particular error, it's most likely because you probably saved it as the default setting, which can sometimes cause this issue. All right, I'll draw it like this from here.

I'll draw this last part here so that my point remains.

Look, this was the last point here. I had to make this break. Also, if you notice what happens when you move these while drawing, when you move them, the chart recalculates and updates itself. So, look from here onward. Now my chart's numbers became 1 2 3. This is the reverse. It automatically draws this in the uptrend. And when I look at it, I see that yes, when the movement is going up, there's volume behind it. If I look at the correction, I can see the correction. Its value is minus 4. And I can load this as a dark properties template. And I can see all of these in this way. Look at this part. minus 4 on the correction movement positive slope. So changes in the volume of movement and correction can give us points like this which are important markers for analysis. Now if I want to extend this further that is I've reached this point and my chart is here in these sections which represent different phases or areas of interest. I can continue to analyze how these points develop over time and what they might indicate for future trends. I want to continue this. If I simply click on it and press the space bar, a pen is actually created for me. I can then use it to carefully design the rest of my chart like this and shape it however I want. All right, let me draw this all the way to the end.

Okay, look this move that we talked about which comes up like this. You see I can see that the slope of this move is becoming negative. This uptrend here for us was clearly defined by these points. These were our main points. It wasn't able to close above these though. The first time it managed to close above this area and form something. What do I understand from this? It's that this move that went up, which is my movement, has a negative slope. And well, this negative slope, it's not good for the movement at all. So, if later on I learn a setup and see on the daily chart that the slope of my movement is gradually becoming more negative, it's possible that when I'm at this point in the market, the slope here is positive. it's broken through and every day I update this line with that trend. I keep drawing it and moving it forward. What happens is that I know my slope is gradually weakening and eventually it turns negative. So if I find a setup at this spot which we'll learn about, I should enter a short position because my trend this movement is already exhausted. The movement I see here again is another movement. Now look here. What's happened is positive, but there's a pullback behind it. When the movement breaks from here, you need to do this. Select it on your chart. Delete it by pressing backspace. Start from here, but only after it's broken. Start after the break. This one.

Draw it again. Because now the break has happened. Go ahead and draw it like this. All right, my slope is definitely positive. Here again, I can use the template properties like this. I can load the template dark. I chose the basic version of this for a black background. Since most of you will be working with black backgrounds, you can set up the template that way as well. If you're working with white backgrounds in your paths, all right, I see this movement. The slope is correct. You see, it no longer throws a shadow behind it because now I'm in a downtrend. Actually, I'm not in a downtrend. The point I want to make here is that my break has happened. I'm making a guess here. Right now, I have a 2. I have a 3. These are not definitive. Why? Because the market hasn't crossed this point yet. But while this is happening, I need to monitor it. I mean the market. All right. This one which probably has a positive slope to its movement is okay. This one that has corrected and come up, it's corrected almost up to 56%. Which is a really good correction. And we said the higher it goes above 60, the more potential it has. I'm going here. Yes, my correction has a negative slope. But this movement that I've made up to here is giving me an alert for the movement telling me that this slope is negative. There's no volume coming in behind it. So for these reasons, I need to come here. Now I have to look at the fundamental reasons. Right now I'm at a point where money is expensive. At this point in time in the market on the day I'm recording this video, there's a Fed speech. All of this is just about to give direction to the market. So I expect that this move won't be a deep or major one. The interest rate difference between the European Union and the US is 1% here. So the market is currently lingering around here to see which side will lower interest rates first. You see I'm tying this to its fundamental reasons. So it's necessary for me to know the fundamentals here as well. So it's not just about technical analysis.

Therefore, if I'm in this area and I expect that the conditions are right for a rate cut, the US might lower rates sooner. So, the likelihood this move doesn't have much strength behind it. It doesn't turn into a real movement. It's the opposite of what I saw on the other side. Meaning, I should turn back and come to this side. In these downtrends, most of the time here, we were expecting interest rate hikes from the US. Whenever the market received that data, it would immediately make its move because it was always the dollar that was raising interest rates and the market kept gaining more depth. Why? Because the dollar was getting stronger. So you see the relationship you can establish between this volume and those fundamental data points and how you can connect them will help you precisely to adopt the right trading style here. Now we want to examine another aspect of the market based on this volume. If you are carefully paying attention to the slides as you may recall we discussed the topic of a 100% correction. Look, I want to check this ridge. Now, if I draw a Fibonacci right here for this move on the chart, it has almost fully retraced a complete 100% move and even gone below that. Let me enlarge this part a bit so we can see it in more detail.

All right, let me just draw the lines for this section as well.

Take a look at it like this. I have one shadow up here and another shadow down here, but it hasn't broken through. Look, one of the reasons we said it's better for the entire candle to close below here is this. You see, the first time it entered the important area, it made an upward move. Selling pressure came in. Now, there are two points here where I can use the volume and adjust my trend. So, I can understand what state my trend is in. Now, why has it turned out like this here? The market volume is in an uptrend. Look, it's the movement. Its volume should be positive, but it's negative here. You see, they've put a background around it. These have fundamental reasons. A bit further on we'll examine an example of this together. Exactly on this part, but here I just want to analyze it purely through its volume. Look, I had a movement where the volume was negative. So I should have this expectation a movement with negative volume. If my fundamental direction is still upward and my fundamental direction is still upward but my movement was low volume or even turned negative then in this situation I should reasonably expect to see a full correction eventually occur.

So this is a very important point. Look, even in this movement that happened, although the volume was negative from around here, we had a positive slope, it's in this correction that our slope should have turned negative, but it's an uptrend. We said the movement is positive, the correction is negative. This is the movement. This is the correction. Here, our correction had gained strength. It had turned positive, which was giving us an alert that the market might be about to reverse. the next move that the market made had a negative volume slope. So, I have to make this guess, this assumption, and also consider the possibility that there probably isn't any real conviction or strong belief behind this move since the volume just isn't coming in. The big players are exiting here. This is the zone where that smart money is probably getting out. As I mentioned about the percentage, it gets stuck in a certain range like this, consolidates, and then starts to move. Because the volume of their orders is high, the amount is significant. As a result, during a certain period of time when they're actively using this, they will typically either unload their existing orders, close them out, or alternatively open up new orders as needed. These limitations actually create a sideways or rather a sideways movement and they form a range that we can identify using this volume. That means when the price moves up like this, I shouldn't just jump in on the pullback and say okay I'll enter here. For example, I find a setup and decide to go in for a buy. But I can see that this move has a negative slope here. The price has gone up and now it's making a correction. Later in my setups, I'll learn to enter during the correction. For instance, I might find an opportunity here and decide to enter. If I'm watching and I see that the slope of my previous move was negative, but now my correction is starting to have a positive slope instead of staying negative. When I'm taking a live trade moment by moment, my setup can easily fail at that point because the data has shifted. Now the correction is gaining strength. So this is the point that I really need to pay attention to here. The place where you want to take notes. The point where the volume decreases during the movement. First I suspect that this could have a deeper correction because the liquidity below here hasn't come in behind this. If the fundamentals are aligned, I can use certain setups which I will explain in their proper place when discussing setups. But if I enter during the correction and see that the correction is turning positive and the volume is increasing sharply, I should consider the possibility that the setup I want to take for a buy could fail. As a result, this failure can serve as a valuable and important warning to me through the changes in volume, alerting me to potential issues or mistakes. Therefore, we can effectively use this analytical tool to carefully determine both the strength and the weakness of these specific moves at various different points in time. And we can also easily analyze and interpret them for better understanding where you see these things happening like fishing. And as I mentioned, these points are usually fundamental points. We'll cover this a bit more in the upcoming lessons. It's basically the same thing here as well. Well, that means every day when this move happens here, I can chart it out. on those days. For example, let's say I found a setup here and entered a trade. I'm updating this every day. It doesn't matter if this sticks right up against them. It just needs to go below that candle to show me what I need. So, here it showed me that the volume weakened. Then the volume turned a bit positive again. I'm measuring the overall slope, strength, and weakness. As long as it's positive, I can keep trailing. and I continue like this. When the movement in the market starts to go upward, for example, I usually switch to a lower time frame and then I carefully follow the smaller, more detailed moves as they develop. Let's assume the small waves, and I've set the stop losses based on the risk management discussion we had placing them at these points. When I keep measuring the slope like this and see that it's negative, the slope is turning negative like this and remains negative. Maybe I shouldn't be looking to increase volume anymore or increase my position size or open more positions. I should try to manage these. If it gives me an opportunity, for example, my stop losses are here. It comes down once more and the slope is negative. And now it wants to move upward and I enter. The negative slope values are getting larger. At this point I can move my stop losses, exit the position and start looking for positions. For example, to go long to buy based on the trend movement and its slope. So you see how many different alerts it can give you. We definitely need to use this tool. There's no need to use that lower tool, the one that comes with NinjaTrader. Look, in a range like this, finding the slope in such a range with the kind of movement that has happened here is almost visually impossible. So to measure, be sure to use this tool. Or for example, this movement that has formed here is also so different that we might not even be able to accurately determine the correct slope with confidence. for instance. All right, this section ends here. I'll be with you in the next session as always.

Setting up the daily chart: tick replay, and why you rarely need it

NinjaTrader can build a chart tick by tick instead of from stored bars. The option is called tick replay, and with it switched on the daily open and close points come out slightly different — more accurate, because the platform has walked through every tick to draw them. The cost is processing power. On a daily chart over a long range it is heavy, and on a modest computer it is the difference between a chart that loads and one that does not.

If you do use it, the data has to be on your machine first. Tick replay reads what your platform has stored, so a period when the computer was off — a week, ten days, a month — shows up as gaps, or as long shadows that never happened. Go to the historical data section beforehand and download the range you want to see. And if the option is not on your chart's data series at all, it is switched off globally: Tools, Options, Market data, and tick the box labelled Show tick replay.

For the daily chart there is a cheaper route that gets almost all of the way. Set the series to minute bars with a value of 1,440 — one day — and load as many days as you need, say 2,500. That loads about 99% the same as tick replay, and the remaining one or two percent does not matter at this level. The session break lines appear as white verticals; set them to transparent and the chart is clean.

Lower down it matters even less. On the hourly chart, where the secondary trend is read, the hourly open and close are already exact, so tick replay is not needed for that level of precision either.

  • Tick replay rebuilds the chart tick by tick: more accurate, and much heavier.
  • Download the historical data for the range first, or gaps become false shadows.
  • Missing option: Tools → Options → Market data → Show tick replay.
  • A 1,440-minute series gives a daily chart about 99% the same, without the load.

Drawing a downtrend on a real daily chart

Start at the highest point and call it 1. The market comes down, and the band between the lowest close and the shadow beneath it becomes a zone. The move back up marks 2, the next turn marks 3 — and as long as price has not closed through the zone, every one of those points is still uncertain. The correction can run almost 100% of the way back and nothing has changed.

This is where the rule from lesson 4 earns its place. No matter how many times the market moves up and down between one area and another, if no candle closes beyond it, the market is sideways. The only thing that makes those points definite is the close that breaks the zone.

Once it does, the labelling simply continues: P2, P3, then 2, 3, 2, 3 for each movement and correction that follows. Drawn from the open and close of the daily bars, the points land almost exactly, which is the point of having set the chart up properly.

  • Highest point is 1; the close-to-shadow band below it is the zone.
  • Until a candle closes through the zone, every point is uncertain.
  • Moving up and down between two areas without a close beyond them is sideways.
  • After the break the labels run on: 2, 3, 2, 3.

Finding the reversal, and not numbering the noise

A reversal on the chart reads the way the slides described it. First a break, then price comes back and moves above the last point — and only then has the trend turned. Where price tries to go below and cannot, that leg is a definite correction, and the last point stays where it was.

The mistake to avoid is zooming in. A move that looks large on screen may still sit entirely inside the range set by the last two points, and the swings inside it do not get numbers. For a swing to be numbered, it has to close beyond the previous point. Until it does, draw the range as a range: one zone here, the next zone there, and the move counts when it breaks one of them.

The size and depth of a trend also change with volatility. In some periods the market moves quickly and the structure is obvious; in others — 2018 on this chart is the example — the legs are slow and shallow and the same structure is harder to see. The rules do not change; your patience with them does.

  • Reversal: a break, then a move above the last point.
  • Do not number swings that stay inside the range of the last points.
  • A swing gets a number only when it closes beyond the previous one.
  • Fast markets make structure obvious; slow ones hide it behind small legs.

When the market clears both sides: the COVID example

Before COVID, 6E was in a downtrend. Then, right as the pandemic hit, the market made an upward move that took out the stops above, followed by a downward move that took out the stops below. In a crisis — a pandemic, a financial crash, a war — this is what uncertainty looks like: nobody yet knows what policy each country will adopt or which way interest rates will go, and price sweeps both sides while it waits.

When that happens you can set aside what came before it. Stops have been taken on both sides; it is as if the market has been cleared out. Start the structure fresh from there — one movement, one correction, another movement — and look at it from a distance rather than getting caught up in the swings in the middle.

  • A crisis can sweep the stops above and below in quick succession.
  • After both sides are cleared, the earlier structure no longer governs.
  • Restart the count from the clearing, and read it at a distance.

Why a volume tool can show zero

Volume tools in NinjaTrader work on data behind the chart you see: the indicator goes into the background, reads the volume and the ticks, and comes back to display the numbers. That data has a horizon. Most platforms provide volume and tick data for no more than about four futures contracts — roughly a year.

So if you open 3,000 days and the delta, or some of the other numbers, read zero, the tool has not failed. It has nothing to read. Inside the one-year range, a zero means your history is incomplete: go to historical data and download a year to a year and a half. Beyond that the data provider will not give you more, and you cannot pull five years of tick history this way.

  • Volume and delta are read from tick data behind the chart.
  • That data reaches back about four contracts — roughly a year.
  • Zero inside that range means missing history: download it.

ICF Trend Path: drawing it, and the one setting never to save

The tool used for the rest of the lesson is ICF Trend Path, a drawing tool: you draw it across the legs of a trend and it labels each one. A right click draws it quickly, and moving any of its points makes the chart recalculate. Pressing the space bar on it continues the drawing forward as the trend develops.

Each leg carries a slope value for its volume; ΣV, the total volume of that leg; delta, which has its own lesson later; and RP, the size of the leg relative to the previous one — the first leg has none, the next might read 39% or 48%. That last figure is how the depth of a correction is read here, without drawing anything else.

Its default colours are designed for a black background. On a white chart some numbers will not be visible; change them in Properties and save the result as a template under a name of its own. Never click Save as default. A drawing tool cannot take a default, so the platform raises an error, and the error removes the drawing tools and indicators from your chart. If it has already happened, go to the NinjaTrader 8 folder in Documents, into the templates for drawing tools, delete the Default file for this tool, and restart NinjaTrader.

  • Each leg shows its volume slope, ΣV, delta and RP.
  • RP is the leg measured against the one before it.
  • Save colour changes as a named template, never as default.
  • If you did: delete the Default template file and restart.

The rule: movement up, correction down — in volume, not in price

Mark a leg with two vertical lines and look at the volume bars beneath it. In some places they rise, in some they fall, then rise again, then fall a lot. Sometimes the slope is obvious; often it is not, and the eye will quite happily see the wrong one. This is what the tool removes: it calculates the slope, and there is nothing left to argue about.

The rule is the same whichever way the trend points. A movement — a leg in the direction of the trend — must have a positive volume slope, even when price is falling. A correction must have a negative one. When both hold, the market is moving in a healthy way: there is conviction behind the move, which is what it looks like when large capital — a bank, a fund, a big trader — is behind it.

When a leg goes against its role, the tool shades the background behind it. A correction whose slope has turned positive, or a movement whose slope has turned negative, is flagged on the chart instead of being something you have to notice.

  • Movement: positive volume slope, in an uptrend or a downtrend.
  • Correction: negative volume slope.
  • Both holding means conviction behind the trend.
  • A shaded background marks a leg whose slope contradicts its role.

Managing a live trade with the slope

Suppose a setup has you short from a particular candle. The order fills, price moves down to a low — and the slope of that movement is gradually turning negative, then significantly so. That is a risk signal before price has said anything. You can move the stop to the entry, or take part of the position off.

Then watch the correction. If it starts gaining volume, and the next movement in your direction again arrives with no volume behind it, the reversal is happening in front of you, and you can say so before the structure confirms it.

The same reading works day to day. Update the drawing every day; as long as the movement's slope stays positive, keep trailing. When it turns negative and stays negative, it is no time to add to the position or open more — manage what you have, move or exit, and start looking the other way. For the finer moves, drop to a lower time frame and follow the small waves with stops set by your risk management.

  • A movement whose slope turns negative is a risk signal before price confirms it.
  • Move the stop to entry or take a partial exit.
  • A correction gaining volume plus a volume-less movement is the reversal forming.
  • Update daily; trail while positive, stop adding when it turns negative.

When structure, volume and fundamentals disagree

Late in the chart there is a case that combines all three. A correction has run to about 56% — a good correction, and the further past 60% it goes, the more potential it has. Its slope is negative, as it should be. But the movement before it has a negative slope too: there is no volume behind it.

That is the point to look at fundamentals. On the day of the recording money is expensive, a Fed speech is due, and the interest-rate difference between the euro area and the US is about 1%. The market is waiting to see which side cuts first. If the US is likely to cut sooner, a movement without volume behind it is unlikely to become a real one.

Compare the downtrends earlier on the same chart. Then the market was expecting US rate hikes; each time the data arrived the move came immediately, because the dollar kept getting stronger, and the volume was there. The relationship between volume and the fundamental data is what tells you which style of trading the moment calls for. Technical analysis alone does not.

  • A correction past 60% has more potential; 56% is already a good one.
  • A movement with no volume behind it is a warning even when the structure looks fine.
  • Read it against the rate picture: who is likely to cut, and when.

The 100% correction, read through volume

Lesson 4 said a correction can retrace the whole of the previous leg and still be a correction. Volume says when to expect it. If the fundamental direction is still up, but the movement came on low volume — or its slope actually turned negative — then a full correction is the reasonable expectation.

Watch the correction that follows. If its slope turns positive when it should be negative, the correction is gaining strength, and that is an early warning that the market may reverse. When the next movement also comes with a negative volume slope, there is no conviction behind it: the large players are leaving. Their size is too big to exit at once, so price stalls in a range while they unload or reposition, and that range is visible in the volume.

This is where a buy setup on the pullback fails. The previous movement had a negative slope; you enter during the correction; and the correction's slope turns positive while volume rises sharply. The data has shifted under the setup, and the change in volume is the warning. The built-in volume indicator will not show this — in a range like that, finding the slope by eye is close to impossible — which is why the measurement is done with the tool.

  • Fundamentals up, movement on falling volume: expect a full correction.
  • A correction whose slope turns positive is gaining strength — a reversal warning.
  • Large players leaving shows up as a range, and the range shows in the volume.
  • A pullback buy fails when the correction turns positive on rising volume.

Back to the course

Every lesson in order, with what each one covers.

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